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政治

政治

2028年共和党总统候选人

2028年共和党总统候选人

罗伯特·F·肯尼迪 Jr.

49%

47%

分组项标题：马科·鲁比奥

21%

罗恩·德桑蒂斯

3%

塔克·卡尔森

2%

唐纳德·特朗普

2%

$689.4M Vol.

巴西总统选举

巴西总统选举

路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦

64%

Flávio Bolsonaro

33%

4%

罗纳尔多·卡亚多

0%

分组项标题：贾伊尔·博尔索纳罗

0%

米歇尔·博索纳罗

0%

$130.2M Vol.

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Peru Presidential Election Winner

100%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino

0%

Rafael López Aliaga

0%

Carlos Álvarez

0%

Ricardo Belmont

0%

Alfonso López Chau

0%

$106.9M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro

82%

Delcy Rodríguez

10%

María Corina Machado

2%

No Head of State

1%

Edmundo González

0%

Diosdado Cabello Rondón

0%

$95.7M Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM

98%

Putin - Russia President

0%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

0%

Abbas - President of Palestine

0%

Petro - Colombia President

0%

None before 2027

0%

$59.8M Vol.

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

100%

0%

Michelle Bowman

0%

0%

0%

Christopher Waller

0%

$55.2M Vol.

Fed Decision in September?

Fed Decision in September?

71%

25 bps increase

28%

25 bps decrease

1%

50+ bps increase

0%

50+ bps decrease

0%

$42.6M Vol.

问题：到2026年底，中国会入侵台湾吗？

问题：到2026年底，中国会入侵台湾吗？

4%

否

$39.9M Vol.

哥伦比亚总统选举

哥伦比亚总统选举

Abelardo de la Espriella

87%

50%

伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗

14%

古斯塔沃·博利瓦尔 (HC)

0%

维基·达维拉（IND）

0%

帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚

0%

$39.4M Vol.

特朗普是否会在……之前访问中国？

特朗普是否会在……之前访问中国？

99%

99%

99%

$36.3M Vol.

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

94%

7%

0%

0%

0%

0%

$36.3M Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

3%

概率

$35.3M Vol.

Starmer通过... ？

Starmer通过... ？

98%

97%

97%

97%

92%

92%

$35.2M Vol.

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

56%

Benjamin Netanyahu

28%

Naftali Bennett

6%

Avigdor Lieberman

4%

Itamar Ben Gvir

1%

0%

$32.8M Vol.

Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by...?

10%

概率

$27.3M Vol.

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

100%

概率

$24.2M Vol.

2026年诺贝尔和平奖得主

2026年诺贝尔和平奖得主

尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼娅

8%

弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基

5%

4%

利奥十四世教皇

3%

3%

唐纳德·特朗普

2%

$23.5M Vol.

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

100%

0%

No Next PM in 2026

0%

0%

0%

0%

$16.6M Vol.

德克萨斯州共和党参议院初选获胜者

德克萨斯州共和党参议院初选获胜者

肯·帕克斯顿

60%

分组项标题：约翰·康宁

41%

0%

分组项标题：韦斯利·亨特

0%

道恩·班克汉姆

0%

$16.0M Vol.

美国会以……的方式入侵委内瑞拉吗？

美国会以……的方式入侵委内瑞拉吗？

4%

否

$14.2M Vol.

洛杉矶市长选举

洛杉矶市长选举

65%

尼希亚·拉曼

35%

$13.4M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

0%

概率

$11.8M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

21%

13%

3%

1%

$10.9M Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

6%

概率

$10.6M Vol.

权力平衡： 2026年中期

权力平衡： 2026年中期

Democrats Sweep

49%

R 参议院，D 众议院

38%

分组项标题：共和党横扫

13%

民主党参议院、共和党众议院

1%

分组项标题：其他

0%

$10.2M Vol.

俄罗斯会在……之前占领Kostyantynivka吗？

俄罗斯会在……之前占领Kostyantynivka吗？

分组项标题：2026年12月31日

100%

2026年9月30日

100%

2026年8月31日

100%

$10.0M Vol.

哪一方将在2026年赢得众议院？

哪一方将在2026年赢得众议院？

88%

12%

$9.6M Vol.

特朗普和普京接下来会在哪里会面？

特朗普和普京接下来会在哪里会面？

6月30日前无会面

99%

0%

0%

0%

0%

其他欧盟国家

0%

$8.6M Vol.

Trump out as President by June 30?

Trump out as President by June 30?

0%

概率

$8.3M Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

24%

10%

3%

$6.4M Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

2%

概率

$6.3M Vol.

Russia nuclear test by...?

Russia nuclear test by...?

December 31, 2026

6%

September 30, 2026

2%

$6.2M Vol.