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SpaceX IPO by ___ ?
December 31
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
June 30
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
September 30
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
August 31
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
June 15
99%
Yes
99%
No
1%
$4.0M Vol.
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap
2.0T-2.5T
49%
Yes
49%
No
51%
1.5T-2.0T
30%
Yes
30%
No
70%
2.5T-3.0T
12%
Yes
12%
No
88%
1.0T-1.5T
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
3.0T-3.5T
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
3.5T+
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$2.7M Vol.
Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?
Goldman Sachs
53%
Yes
53%
No
47%
Morgan Stanley
39%
Yes
39%
No
61%
Bank of America
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
JPMorgan
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
UBS
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Citigroup
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$1.7M Vol.
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
June 30
92%
Yes
92%
No
8%
Super Heavy booster explodes?
89%
Yes
89%
No
11%
May 31
89%
Yes
89%
No
11%
Successful splash down?
63%
Yes
63%
No
37%
May 22
61%
Yes
61%
No
39%
May 15
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$1.7M Vol.
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)
2.0T+
64%
Yes
64%
No
36%
1.8T–2.0T
21%
Yes
21%
No
79%
1.6T–1.8T
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
1.4T–1.6T
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
1.2T–1.4T
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
1.0T–1.2T
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$1.4M Vol.
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$991k Vol.
SpaceX Closing Market Cap End of IPO Month
$2.0T-$2.5T
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$2.5T-$3.0T
26%
Yes
26%
No
74%
$1.5T-$2.0T
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
$3.0T-$3.5T
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$1.0T-$1.5T
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$3.5T+
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$777k Vol.
Monthly
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13
July 27
88%
Yes
88%
No
12%
July 26
87%
Yes
87%
No
13%
July 25
83%
Yes
83%
No
17%
July 24
76%
Yes
76%
No
24%
$708k Vol.
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
98%
chance
Yes
No
$572k Vol.
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<5
59%
Yes
59%
No
41%
5-6
40%
Yes
40%
No
60%
7-8
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
>16
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
11-12
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
9-10
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$503k Vol.
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
October 31
96%
Yes
96%
No
4%
September 30
92%
Yes
92%
No
8%
Super Heavy booster explodes?
80%
Yes
80%
No
20%
Successful splash down?
79%
Yes
79%
No
21%
September 15
55%
Yes
55%
No
45%
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
$385k Vol.
SpaceX IPO: Who will be on-stage at the Bell Ceremony?
1%
chance
Yes
No
$371k Vol.
Elon Musk Net Worth on July 31?
<$0.70T
89%
Yes
89%
No
11%
$0.70-$0.80T
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
$0.80-$0.90T
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$0.90-$1.00T
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$1.00-$1.10T
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$237k Vol.
Grok 5 released by...?
1%
chance
Yes
No
$175k Vol.
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$116k Vol.
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$116k Vol.
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
100%
SpaceX
SpaceX
OpenAI
$90k Vol.
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by...?
December 31
90%
Yes
90%
No
10%
September 30
52%
Yes
52%
No
48%
$72k Vol.
Elon Musk Net Worth on August 31?
$800-$900B
65%
Yes
65%
No
35%
$700-$800B
22%
Yes
22%
No
78%
$900B-$1.00T
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
$600-$700B
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$1.10T+
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$1.00-$1.10T
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$67k Vol.
Another Elon baby by June 30?
5%
chance
Yes
No
$58k Vol.
AI data center in space by...?
December 31, 2027
18%
Yes
18%
No
82%
December 31, 2026
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$42k Vol.
𝕏 Money launched by...?
18%
chance
Yes
No
$38k Vol.
How many SpaceX launches in June 2026?
14+
67%
Yes
67%
No
33%
13
30%
Yes
30%
No
70%
12
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
11
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
<11
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$21k Vol.
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?
5%
chance
Yes
No
$21k Vol.
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to Nasdaq-100 in 2026?
99%
chance
Yes
No
$12k Vol.
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
94%
SpaceX
SpaceX
OpenAI
$11k Vol.
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?
6%
chance
Yes
No
$10k Vol.
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?
17%
chance
Yes
No
$6k Vol.
How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?
13
82%
Yes
82%
No
18%
14
20%
Yes
20%
No
80%
<13
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
15
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
16+
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$5k Vol.
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day?
69%
Up
Up
Down
$4k Vol.
Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?
October 31, 2026
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
September 30, 2026
19%
Yes
19%
No
81%
August 31, 2026
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$2k Vol.
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?
83%
chance
Yes
No
$1k Vol.
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