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241
Trade War
0
Fed Rates
9
Inflation
52
Macro Indicators
3
GDP
27
Global Rates
0
Taxes
0
Treasuries
0
TSA
0
Housing
24
Økonomi
Økonomi
All
Trade War
Fed Rates
Inflation
Macro Indicators
GDP
Global Rates
Taxes
Treasuries
TSA
Housing
Fed Decision in July?
No change
85%
Yes
85%
No
15%
25 bps increase
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
50+ bps increase
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
25 bps decrease
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
50+ bps decrease
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$81.6M Vol.
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$55.9M Vol.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$41.3M Vol.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$37.9M Vol.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$24.3M Vol.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
28%
chance
Yes
No
$8.9M Vol.
IPOs before 2027?
SHEIN
98%
Yes
98%
No
2%
Anthropic
88%
Yes
88%
No
12%
Discord
29%
Yes
29%
No
71%
OpenAI
17%
Yes
17%
No
83%
Remote
16%
Yes
16%
No
84%
Applied Intuition
12%
Yes
12%
No
88%
$7.1M Vol.
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA
74%
Yes
74%
No
26%
Apple
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
Alphabet
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
SpaceX
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Microsoft
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Saudi Aramco
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$6.1M Vol.
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX
55%
Yes
55%
No
45%
Anthropic
44%
Yes
44%
No
56%
xAI
26%
Yes
26%
No
74%
OpenAI
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Kraken
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Revolut
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$5.5M Vol.
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
1%
chance
Yes
No
$3.6M Vol.
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
40+
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
80+
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
60+
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$3.1M Vol.
AI bubble burst by...?
13%
chance
Yes
No
$2.9M Vol.
Fed rate hike by...?
October Meeting
41%
Yes
41%
No
59%
September Meeting
32%
Yes
32%
No
68%
$2.3M Vol.
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Elon Musk
97%
Yes
97%
No
3%
Warren Buffett
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Jeff Bezos
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Bernard Arnault
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Steve Ballmer
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Jensen Huang
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$1.9M Vol.
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 4.25%
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
↓ 3.25%
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
↓ 2.0%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
↓ 2.25%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
↓ 0.25%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
↓ 0%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$1.8M Vol.
US recession by end of 2026?
8%
chance
Yes
No
$1.7M Vol.
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Above 4.5%
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
Above 5%
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
Above 6%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
Above 8%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
Above 10%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$1.4M Vol.
2nd Largest Company end of July?
Apple
96%
Yes
96%
No
4%
Company A
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Company G
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Company M
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Company T
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
Company B
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
$882k Vol.
2nd largest company end of June?
Alphabet
77%
Yes
77%
No
23%
Apple
24%
Yes
24%
No
76%
NVIDIA
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Microsoft
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Amazon
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Saudi Aramco
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$729k Vol.
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Andy Jassy - Amazon
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
Sundar Pichai - Google
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
Sam Altman - OpenAI
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
Dan Clancy - Twitch
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
$711k Vol.
June Inflation US - Annual
3.8%
51%
Yes
51%
No
49%
3.7%
28%
Yes
28%
No
72%
3.9%
18%
Yes
18%
No
82%
4.0%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
≤3.6%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
4.1%
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$697k Vol.
July Inflation US - Annual
3.4%
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
3.3%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
3.5%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
≤3.1%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
3.6%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
3.2%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$649k Vol.
May Inflation US - Annual
4.2%
49%
Yes
49%
No
51%
4.3%
40%
Yes
40%
No
60%
4.1%
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
≥4.4%
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
4.0%
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
3.9%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$521k Vol.
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
5.0%
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
5.5%
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
6.0%
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
10.0%
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
7.0%
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
$482k Vol.
ECB Interest Rates: July 2026
No change
99%
Yes
99%
No
1%
25 bps Increase
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
50+ bps increase
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
25 bps decrease
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
50+ bps decrease
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$468k Vol.
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?
475k+
57%
Yes
57%
No
43%
450k–475k
25%
Yes
25%
No
75%
425k–450k
12%
Yes
12%
No
88%
400k–425k
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
375k–400k
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
350k–375k
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$419k Vol.
Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
45%+
19%
Yes
19%
No
81%
50%+
15%
Yes
15%
No
85%
55%+
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$375k Vol.
April Inflation US - Annual
3.7%
40%
Yes
40%
No
60%
3.8%
35%
Yes
35%
No
65%
3.6%
16%
Yes
16%
No
84%
3.9%
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
3.5%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
≥4.1%
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$374k Vol.
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
20+
50%
Yes
50%
No
50%
40+
28%
Yes
28%
No
72%
60+
15%
Yes
15%
No
85%
80+
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
$330k Vol.
How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?
70-80B
93%
Yes
93%
No
7%
80-90B
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
60-70B
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
90-100B
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
110-120B
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
50-60B
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$328k Vol.
July Inflation US - Monthly
≥0.1%
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
0.0%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
-0.1%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
≤-0.7%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
-0.2%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
-0.4%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$305k Vol.
Monthly
Bank of England decision in June?
No change
98%
Yes
98%
No
2%
25 bps increase
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
25 bps decrease
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
50+ bps decrease
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
50+ bps increase
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$272k Vol.
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