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372
Iran
223
Oil
7
Ukraine
47
Ukraine Map
21
Cuba
1
Venezuela
6
Middle East
28
Gaza
11
Israel
46
Syria
5
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3
Turkey
2
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2
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35
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2
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Geopolitikk
Geopolitikk
All
Iran
Oil
Ukraine
Ukraine Map
Cuba
Venezuela
Middle East
Gaza
Israel
Syria
Yemen
Turkey
Sudan
China
Thailand-Cambodia
India-Pakistan
Netanyahu out by...?
49%
chance
Yes
No
$124.1M Vol.
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Péter Magyar
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
Viktor Orbán
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
István Kapitány
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
László Toroczkai
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
János Lázár
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Klára Dobrev
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$95.0M Vol.
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
December 31, 2026
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
September 30, 2026
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
August 31, 2026
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$21.4M Vol.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
26%
chance
Yes
No
$14.5M Vol.
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
4%
chance
Yes
No
$12.4M Vol.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
13%
chance
Yes
No
$11.8M Vol.
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$11.5M Vol.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$11.0M Vol.
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$10.0M Vol.
Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?
Abelardo de la Espriella
99%
Yes
99%
No
1%
Iván Cepeda Castro
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Paloma Valencia
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Vicky Dávila
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Mauricio Cárdenas
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Enrique Peñalosa
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$9.6M Vol.
Israel x Syria security agreement by...?
2%
chance
Yes
No
$8.5M Vol.
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
September 30
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
August 31
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$8.4M Vol.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
9%
chance
Yes
No
$7.5M Vol.
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
4
76%
Yes
76%
No
24%
5
16%
Yes
16%
No
84%
6
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
8
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
7
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
10
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$7.4M Vol.
Next leader out of power before 2027?
Orbán - Hungary PM
96%
Yes
96%
No
4%
Starmer - UK PM
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
None before 2027
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Putin - Russia President
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$6.7M Vol.
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$6.3M Vol.
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31
26%
Yes
26%
No
74%
October 31
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
August 31
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$5.9M Vol.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
14%
chance
Yes
No
$4.1M Vol.
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
1%
chance
Yes
No
$3.8M Vol.
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson
89%
Yes
89%
No
11%
Ulf Kristersson
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
Ebba Busch
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Jimmie Åkesson
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Nooshi Dadgostar
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$3.8M Vol.
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027
12%
Yes
12%
No
88%
December 31
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
$3.7M Vol.
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
30%
chance
Yes
No
$3.6M Vol.
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
9%
chance
Yes
No
$3.5M Vol.
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$3.4M Vol.
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)
99%
Yes
99%
No
1%
Yabloko
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
New People (NL)
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$3.3M Vol.
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$3.2M Vol.
Will Trump visit China on...?
May 13
96%
Yes
96%
No
4%
May 14
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
May 12
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
May 15
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
No visit by May 31
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
May 17
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$3.1M Vol.
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027
93%
Yes
93%
No
7%
Switzerland
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
Turkey
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
China
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
US
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Belarus
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$3.1M Vol.
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
7%
chance
Yes
No
$3.0M Vol.
Next Prime Minister of Slovenia
Janez Janša
92%
Yes
92%
No
8%
Jernej Vrtovec
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
Anže Logar
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
Robert Golob
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
Vladimir Prebilič
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
Zoran Stevanović
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$3.0M Vol.
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
December 31
39%
Yes
39%
No
61%
September 30
7%
Yes
7%
No
93%
$2.9M Vol.
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
13%
chance
Yes
No
$2.9M Vol.
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