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372
Iran
223
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7
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47
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21
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1
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6
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28
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11
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46
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5
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Geopolitikk
Geopolitikk
All
Iran
Oil
Ukraine
Ukraine Map
Cuba
Venezuela
Middle East
Gaza
Israel
Syria
Yemen
Turkey
Sudan
China
Thailand-Cambodia
India-Pakistan
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
13%
chance
Yes
No
$11.8M Vol.
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$11.5M Vol.
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
8%
chance
Yes
No
$3.3M Vol.
Will Trump visit China on...?
May 13
96%
Yes
96%
No
4%
May 14
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
May 12
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
May 15
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
No visit by May 31
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
May 17
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$3.1M Vol.
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
chance
Yes
No
$3.0M Vol.
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1%
chance
Yes
No
$2.0M Vol.
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$1.9M Vol.
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
52%
chance
Yes
No
$1.7M Vol.
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
9%
chance
Yes
No
$1.3M Vol.
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0%
88%
Yes
88%
No
12%
5.0–6.0%
8%
Yes
8%
No
92%
3.0–4.0%
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
8.0–9.0%
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
9.0%+
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
6.0-7.0%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$882k Vol.
Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?
December 31
97%
Yes
97%
No
3%
October 31
96%
Yes
96%
No
4%
September 30
94%
Yes
94%
No
6%
September 15
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$741k Vol.
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
8%
chance
Yes
No
$427k Vol.
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
33%
chance
Yes
No
$350k Vol.
China x India military clash by...?
8%
chance
Yes
No
$329k Vol.
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
88%
chance
Yes
No
$232k Vol.
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?
99%
chance
Yes
No
$202k Vol.
Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?
Dong Jun
12%
Yes
12%
No
88%
Zhang Shengmin
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
Zhao Leji
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
Wang Huning
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
Cai Qi
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
Ding Xuexiang
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$202k Vol.
US x China Military clash before 2027?
4%
chance
Yes
No
$198k Vol.
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
4.6-4.9%
73%
Yes
73%
No
27%
4.3-4.6%
25%
Yes
25%
No
75%
4.9-5.2%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
4.0-4.3%
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
5.2-5.5%
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
6.1%+
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$166k Vol.
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?
14%
chance
Yes
No
$137k Vol.
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
1%
chance
Yes
No
$109k Vol.
Will Putin visit China by May 31?
79%
chance
Yes
No
$109k Vol.
US x China tariff agreement by July 31?
1%
chance
Yes
No
$94k Vol.
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$81k Vol.
People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?
No Change
87%
Yes
87%
No
13%
Decrease
13%
Yes
13%
No
87%
Increase
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$48k Vol.
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by...?
0%
chance
Yes
No
$41k Vol.
July Inflation China - Annual
≤0.6%
100%
Yes
100%
No
0%
0.9% - 1.0%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
0.7% - 0.8%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
1.1% - 1.2%
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
1.3%+
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$39k Vol.
August Inflation China - Annual
0.5% - 0.6%
39%
Yes
39%
No
61%
0.7% - 0.8%
32%
Yes
32%
No
68%
0.9%+
15%
Yes
15%
No
85%
0.3% - 0.4%
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
≤0.2%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$19k Vol.
Where will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall?
China
93%
Yes
93%
No
7%
Japan
33%
Yes
33%
No
67%
South Korea
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
$6k Vol.
Who will attend Trump's Xi summit?
Any CEO of a publicly-listed US company
96%
Yes
96%
No
4%
Scott Bessent
96%
Yes
96%
No
4%
Marco Rubio
93%
Yes
93%
No
7%
Melania Trump
87%
Yes
87%
No
13%
Elon Musk
85%
Yes
85%
No
15%
Any of Trump’s sons
71%
Yes
71%
No
29%
$5k Vol.
Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31?
4%
chance
Yes
No
$4k Vol.
US x China tariff agreement by August 31?
2%
chance
Yes
No
$3k Vol.
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