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All
1
Trade War
0
Fed Rates
9
Inflation
52
Macro Indicators
3
GDP
27
Global Rates
0
Taxes
0
Treasuries
0
TSA
0
Housing
24
Økonomi
Økonomi
All
Trade War
Fed Rates
Inflation
Macro Indicators
GDP
Global Rates
Taxes
Treasuries
TSA
Housing
Fed Decision in July?
No change
85%
Yes
85%
No
15%
25 bps increase
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
50+ bps increase
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
25 bps decrease
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
50+ bps decrease
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$81.6M Vol.
Fed rate hike by...?
October Meeting
43%
Yes
43%
No
57%
September Meeting
34%
Yes
34%
No
66%
$2.4M Vol.
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 4.25%
12%
Yes
12%
No
88%
↓ 3.25%
11%
Yes
11%
No
89%
↑ 4.75%
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
↓ 2.75%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
↓ 1.5%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
↑ 4.5%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
$1.8M Vol.
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
3.9%
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
3.6%
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
2.0%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
3.7%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
3.8%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
3.0%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$225k Vol.
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
8%
chance
Yes
No
$147k Vol.
Fed Decision in September?
No change
82%
Yes
82%
No
18%
25 bps decrease
21%
Yes
21%
No
79%
25 bps increase
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
50+ bps increase
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
50+ bps decrease
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$52k Vol.
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
0
73%
Yes
73%
No
27%
1
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
2
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
3
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
4+
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$31k Vol.
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
2%
chance
Yes
No
$6k Vol.
What will be the next Fed rate change?
51%
Hike
Hike
Cut
$3k Vol.
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